World-Changing Decisions That Almost Happened

Throughout history, there have been countless moments where the course of events could have shifted dramatically with just a slight change in circumstances. These “near misses” often reflect the fragile nature of human decisions and the unpredictable currents of time. While the past is set in stone, the hypothetical alternatives prompt us to ponder how different our world might look today.

One of the most significant near misses occurred in the realm of aviation, specifically during World War II. On April 18, 1942, the Doolittle Raid was launched, marking the United States’ first retaliatory strike against Japan following the attack on Pearl Harbor. However, the plan could have faltered before its inception; initial operations considered launching the bombers from aircraft carriers much farther away. If weather conditions had been less favorable or if the Japanese defenses had been more vigilant, the raid could have been thwarted entirely, delaying U.S. momentum in the Pacific Theater. A failure here could have emboldened Japan and drastically altered wartime strategies.

Similarly, another near miss occurred in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis—a hair-raising standoff between the United States and the Soviet Union that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. In a critical moment, almost happened Soviet submarine commander Vasily Arkhipov had to make a split-second decision to refuse launching a nuclear torpedo. Had Arkhipov been replaced by a more hawkish officer, the decision to retaliate could have ignited a full-scale nuclear conflict. The balance of power in the Cold War might have radically shifted, leading to unimaginable devastation.

In a parallel timeline, consider the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel during the Jewish holiday, catching the Israeli Defense Forces off-guard. If Israeli intelligence had correctly assessed the Egyptian buildup and anticipated an attack, they may have preemptively struck when advantageous. The subsequent outcome of the war could have led to a different peace process in the Middle East, with a different trajectory for Israeli-Palestinian relations.

The early 21st century presents its own near misses, notably the 2008 financial crisis. The collapse of Lehman Brothers set off global economic turmoil, yet it was preceded by decisions that could have steered the economy onto a more stable course. Had regulatory agencies intervened sooner or had banks adhered to more conservative lending practices, history might have recorded a different economic landscape—a world less affected by the harsh and prolonged consequences of global recession.

Historical near misses serve as poignant reminders of the complexity of human choices and the myriad factors that influence monumental events. Each “what if” scenario sheds light on the delicate balance of power, decision-making, and chance throughout history. Ultimately, while the narratives of our past are historical certainties, the implications of these near misses offer a window into the infinite possibilities of an ever-unfolding saga. As we reflect on these moments, it becomes evident that history is not merely a collection of facts but an intricate tapestry woven from pivotal decisions that could have led us down vastly different paths.